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Why Price Forecasts Are Often Wrong

While the media is keen to forecast drops in house prices, property industry experts warn there is no accurate way to read what is likely to happen in property markets.

Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee says if you are able to predict the future direction of prices, either up or down, you are doing pretty well.

“But to get the scale right is almost impossible,” she says.

She says at the start of the pandemic there were predictions of a 30% drop in property prices, but in fact the opposite happened, with a national boom emerging.

PropTrack economist Paul Ryan says, while it has only recently started making predictions, it is difficult to accurately predict the trends.

“If you get one variable forecast wrong, then you are wrong about everything else,” he says.

Forecasts are often based on an index populated with theoretical data which tries to place a value on every property, even if it has not sold recently.

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