Blockbuster growth in the September Quarter has put the economy on course to regain its pre-pandemic size by the middle of next year — six months earlier than expected by the Reserve Bank and Treasury.

Updated CBA growth forecasts, in the wake of figures which revealed national output jumped 3.3% over the quarter, suggest real GDP will reach $497.4 billion in the June 2021 Quarter, eclipsing the $496.9 billion recorded in December 2019.

CBA head of economics Gareth Aird expects the economy to grow 2% over the final three months of the year. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe have repeated forecasts for the economy to regain its pre-pandemic size by the end of next year. But the surprising pace of the recovery will trigger upgrades from both Treasury and the RBA, Aird says.

Across the country there’s been a revival in spending, rising 1.4% month-on-month to October. The latest ABS data shows retail turnover rising 7.1% compared to October 2019 at the national level.