Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the 235,000 in net overseas migration forecast in the October 2022 Budget is likely to be wrong, with the real figure expected to be much higher.

This is one of several reasons why Hotspotting and others are forecasting house price growth in 2023.

Chalmers says it’s reasonable to expect migration to be higher given extreme labour shortages are creating strong pull factors, as the government works to reduce a massive visa backlog.

“We’ve got serious skills and labour shortages that are acting as a handbrake,” he says. “It’s a reasonable assumption the number may be higher than the 235,000 printed in the Budget.”

The Federal Government last year boosted the permanent migration cap by 35,000 for 2022-23 following calls from business about the shortage of workers.

But immigration expert Abul Rizvi says a likely net migration figure of 300,000 will be driven by a spike in international students and a large excess of visitors in the country